PAKISTAN READER

Photo : Dawn

PTI-backed independents might get their share of reserved seats in assemblies

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #75
PTI-backed independents might get their share of reserved seats in assemblies
On 26 February, Dawn reported that according to a senior official, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) independent candidates who recently joined the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) are anticipated to get their reserved seats in the National Assembly (NA) and Provincial Assemblies (PA) because of “past precedent” laid down by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). According to an ECP official, the precedent is a Lahore High Court judgement delivered in 2018.   Dawn further reported that Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sikandar Sultan Raja will be heading a meeting today to decide on the “reserved seats quota”. The meeting has been convened as it the issue has emerged as a “bone of contention” due to which President Arif Alvi has “delayed requisitioning the National Assembly session.” The number of SIC members is presumed to reach 104 after getting 23 reserved seats for minorities and women, Dawn added. ECP officials asserted that the commission is bound to call for an NA session with regard to the 21-day deadline.  He further added according to the law, all the assemblies are obliged to hold their sessions on or before 29 February. The meeting will be convened again if no decision is taken in today’s meeting, the official added. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “Past precedent ‘might hand’ SIC reserved seats in assemblies,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
Sindh and Punjab set to choose chief ministers for their provinces
On 26 February, Dawn reported that the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) who are set to form a coalition at the centre are set to take the “coveted position” of the chief minister in two provinces. Meanwhile, the PTI-backed independent candidates are hoping to secure 371 members in the Punjab assembly. PML-N Senior Vice President Maryam Nawaz Sharif is the chief ministerial candidate in Punjab against the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) member Rana Aftab Ahmed. In PPP candidate Murad Ali Shah will stand against Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) candidate Ali Khurshidi amid “a boycott by the PTI and the JI.” It is to be noted that the SIC had nominated Mian Aslam Iqbal for the slot, however, he was replaced with Rana as he did not show up to the house of the oath-taking meeting as MPA. Speaking to the media after filing his nomination for the chief minister post, Rana Aftab asserted that he is in a position to “give surprise in Monday’s election.” He further said that he had regrets over MPA from SIC for not being allowed inside the Punjab assembly. Meanwhile, the MQM-P has fielded Ali Khurshidi for the post of chief minister. Separately, on 25 February, according to the joint announcement from Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), both parties decided to boycott the “proceedings for the CM’s elections” in Sindh. The PTI Sindh chapter president, Haleem Adil Sheikh said: “We would boycott the election of CM Sindh.” He added: “We don’t want to validate those who have become part of the legislative assembly after stealing the mandate of the people of Sindh. We would resist and take every step to regain our mandate through legal and democratic fight.” (Tahir Siddiqui, Imran Ayub and Amjad Mahmood, “Sindh and Punjab to pick their CMs today,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
Coalition protesting rigged elections shifts protest to the Balochistan assembly
On 26 February, Dawn reported that the coalition of four Baloch, Pashtun and Hazara nationalist parties have announced that they will move their ongoing protest to the Balochistan Assembly. The group, which includes the Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awa­mi Party (PkMAP), the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M), the National Party (NP), and the Hazara Democratic Party (HDP), have been demonstrating for two weeks, alleging irregularities in the 8 February elections. The Balochistan Governor, Malik Abdul Wali Khan Kakar, has set the first assembly session for 28 February, when elected members will take oath. The sit-in at the district returning office has ended and will now be moved to the assembly. Leaders expressed discontent with the lack of official engagement and pledged to continue protests around the province. They highlighted that their mandate had not been acknowledged and planned a demonstration in front of the assembly, with subsequent actions to be discussed later. (Saleem Shahid, “Poll rigging protests planned outside Balochistan Assembly,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
Imran Khan once again nominates Gohar Ali Khan as PTI’s chairman
On 26 February, Dawn reported that the  present chairman of the party, Gohar Ali Khan, is once again nominated for the top position in the party. After securing Khan’s support in the intra-party polls Gohar was elected as PTI chairman. Previously, the party had decided to hold intra-party polls on 3 March and called Barrister Ali Zafar for the post of chairman as Imran Khan’s nominee. However, the party sources asserted that Zafar has refused to accept the position. Despite the information: “It couldn’t be confirmed through independent sou­rces if Mr Zafar has voluntarily refused or has been stopped by the party from submitting nomination papers.” PTI’s chief election commissioner Raoof Hasan said: “We have issued a bulletin regarding nomination papers, and all the information has been provided in it. I don’t have anything else to share.” As per the details provided, the deadline to submit papers ended on 25 February, and that only Gohar submitted his nomination papers. Meanwhile, the 15-member panel along with Omar Ayub had submitted their papers for the post of general secretary. (Ikram Junaidi, “Imran taps Gohar again as nominee for PTI chief,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
PTI declined PPP’s proposal for alliance at the centre, says Khursheed Ahmed Shah
On 26 February, Dawn reported that Pakistan People’s Party leader Syed Khursheed Ahmed Shah has revealed that the party had  initially approached the PTI to establish the federal government for “the sake of democracy,” however, the  latter declined the offer.  Shah emphasized the PPP’s election mandate and its commitment to improve performance. He disregarded GDA’s charges of rigging, stating that the latter had “never won more than one National Assembly seat”.Shah reaffirmed the PPP’s cooperation with the PML-N and expressed prospective support for Yusuf Raza Gilani as Senate chairman. He also criticized the PTI founder Imran Khan for seeking IMF intervention and termed it akin to “inviting interference in internal affairs.” He opposed rotating the prime minister’s term between parties, describing it as “against the spirit of democracy.” (Tahir Siddiqui, “PPP had approached PTI first to form federal govt, says Khursheed Shah,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
PML-N to start major discourse with all political parties to deal with national crises
On 25 February, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Ayaz Sadiq along with fellow party leader Khawaja Saad Rafique announced plans to approach leaders of all political parties to initiate a “grand dialogue” to “steer the country out of crises.” According to party workers, Sadiq emphasized his wishes to see all political forces coming together on “common points of the national interest.” He further stressed the significance of constructive criticism, stability and opposed revenge politics, arguing for a shift away from previous political practices from 2018 and 2022. Additionally, Rafique highlighted the crucial role of tolerance and resolving public issues, reaffirming the PML-N’s commitment to democracy and rejection of demeaning politics. (“PML-N to initiate ‘grand dialogue’ with all parties,” The Express Tribune, 26 February 2024)

POLITICS
IHC to consider Imran and Bushra Khan’s appeals in the Cypher and Toshakhana cases
On 26 February, The News International reported that appeals against the PTI founder’s convictions in the Cypher and Toshakhana cases will be heard by the Islamabad High Court (IHC) today. Chief Justice Aamer Farooq and Justice Mian Gul Hasan Aurangzeb will preside over the division bench. The appeals of Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Bushra Bibi will be considered alongside bail requests. The Cypher case comprises a 10 year term under the Official Secrets Act, but the Toshakhana case contains a 14 year prison sentence handed out by the Accountability Court. In addition, a separate bench chaired by Chief Justice Aamer Farooq and Justice Tariq Mehmood Jahangiri will consider Imran Khan’s bail application in a GPP 190 million corruption case. (Awais Yousafzai, “Cipher, Toshakhana cases: IHC takes up Imran, Bushra’s pleas today,” The News International, 26 February 2024)
 
Ban on X in Pakistan a “Faustian strategy to curb public debate and scrutiny,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 26 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Silence strategy” expressed concern over the “alarming frequency” with which digital censorship is occurring in Pakistan, with reference to X being inaccessible for the ninth consecutive day to “ostensibly to stymie political debate and agitation.” According to the Lithuanian internet shutdown tracker Surfshark, 2024 witnessed blockages of “various social media platforms five times,” while the Pakistani rights group Bytes for All counted 15 internet shutdowns in 2023. This ban also included YouTube, highlighting a “systemic effort to draw a curtain on the public’s eyes.” The editorial also referred to the “deafening” silence of the Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) which has “shamefully” ignored recent and past rulings of the Sindh High Court (SHC) with regard to upholding digital freedoms. While the PTA’s actions have made it an “arbiter of censorship under the guise of regulatory oversight,” the government’s lack of ownership and the repeated interventions of the SHC prove that state’s “failure to protect the fundamental rights of citizens.” The editorial pointed out that X and similar services are “critical channels of information,” and that the pattern of restrictions is not limited to “politically sensitive periods,” thereby revealing a “Faustian strategy to curb public debate and scrutiny.” These attempts can ruin Pakistan’s global image and go against democratic values, and have in the past hampered economic growth and innovation. The editorial concluded by emphasizing that the PTA and caretaker government be held accountable for “brazen disregard for court orders, the Constitution, and the digital rights of citizens.” There is little scope for Pakistan to become an “IT hub” if internet freedoms can be “yanked on a whim.” (“Silence strategy,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
ECONOMY
Pakistan aims to augment IMF loan to USD eight billion
On 26 February, The News International reported that as per “top official sources,” Pakistani authorities were debating augmenting the upcoming IMF bailout package from USD 7.5 billion to USD 8 billion. This would help in exploring climate finance to augment the Extended Fund Facility (EEF), similar to Bangladesh. Earlier in June 2023, when the possibility of augmentation was brought up with the IMF, the organization declined saying that the Stand by Arrangement (SBA) was short-term in nature, and that this possibility could be explored the next time. Under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), countries undertaking reforms are given affordable long-term financing in order to minimize threats to the balance of payments stability. The RSF supports “policy reforms that reduce macro-critical risks associated with climate change and pandemic preparedness,” and augments “policy space and financial buffers to mitigate the risks arising from such longer-term structural challenges.” Countries requesting access to the RSF need to meet certain criteria, including sustainable debt, capacity to repay, and high-quality reforms addressing long-term structural challenges of climate change. Recently, Pakistan approved the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) framework including Climate- PIMA. The country thus looks to the IMF for support for its economic growth and goal to make infrastructure climate resilient. (Mehtab Haider, “Pakistan looking to hike IMF loan to up to $8bn,” The News International, 26 February 2024)
 
“An elected government will start operating soon, and resolving the circular debt crisis should be among its top priorities,” argues an opinion in Dawn
On 26 February, Ammar H Khan in an opinion in Dawn titled “Circular debt’s curse” highlighted how the energy sector’s circular debt in Pakistan has been a “drag on growth for more than a decade,” with the “inability of successive governments” to implement effective reforms leading to power and gas circular deficit to exceed PKR five trillion. A continuation of the same trend will lead to deficit increasing at a rate of more than 20 per cent. Khan linked the roots of circular debt to the “omnipresence of the government across the energy value chain,” where government and government-controlled entities are both the sole buyers of electricity and gas and the ones who set the price of both. The government’s inability to set electricity and gas prices based on its economic use has led to gas being sold to domestic users at a “fraction of the marginal cost of gas.” Due to there not being a market for electricity and gas, the government has used subsidies and debt to “bridge the deficit between the price charged by the ultimate consumer and the cost of production and transmission.” Khan also highlighted how bank borrowings have supported circular debt, as entities borrow through short-term debt to “plug their liquidity requirements,” leading to the ability to raise debt to finance long-term projects becoming compromised. Circular debt has had multiple consequences, from “depressed” equity valuations to a limited availability of external debt. The opinion cited the caretaker government’s plan to inject PKR 170 billion in the energy value chain by settling power producers, followed by gas distribution companies, and finally E&P entities. After this, they would pay a dividend to their shareholders, leading to a clearing of circular debt and a “slightly higher payout.” However, Khan noted multiple risks associated with this plan due to the large number of entities and boards involved, along with the absence of a plan to undertake “deep reforms.” He also underscored that this plan had been proposed numerous times over the last three years and failed at various stages, making the consent of the IMF hard to come by. The opinion contends that resolving circular debt must be a priority of the caretaker government, along with an “aggressive plan” to reform the energy value chain. As electricity prices have reached the point where demand will either stay stagnant or fall, the economy could slow down. Khan lamented that the “habit of kicking the can down the road has led to a situation where instead of reforms, government functionaries simply pass on all inefficiencies and deadweight costs to consumers.” (Ammar H Khan, “Circular debt’s curse,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)
 
“If power consumers were to again suffer overbilling this year, the onus would be on” Nepra, contends an editorial in Dawn
On 26 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Nepra’s reluctance”  questioned the purpose of having a power sector regulator (Nepra) if entities that it oversees for misconduct and transgressions go unpunished and consumers remain unprotected. Discos and K-Electric have been let “off the hook” without show-cause notices or penalization despite “overcharging their unsuspecting consumers” from July-August to show higher bill recoveries. The editorial referred to an announcement made by Nepra last week, where it expressed dissatisfaction with the Disco’s response to the excessive billing charges, asserting that it would issue formal show-cause notices. Nepra later asked the Discos to “‘compensate their consumers’ through the upcoming bills to the extent of the additional burden.” What led to Nepra changing its mind and letting power distribution companies get away with this “remains a secret.” This “inexplicable reluctance” has made the “recovery campaign” against defaulters and power thieves “suspect,” leading to questions of the integrity of the revenue sources of the Discos and K-Electric, and questions regarding the purpose of Nepra itself. Nepra’s failure to take action against the “massive scale” of complaints regarding overbilling by Discos will “embolden the power entities further.” (“Nepra’s reluctance,” Dawn, 26 February 2024)

Pakistan today: No freedom of Assembly or right to protest. No freedom of speech & even twitter is banned. No rule of law, rather a weaponisation of the criminal justice system. No democracy, just a stolen mandate. -Hammad Azhar   Mohtarma Maryam N Sharif scores 220 votes and gets elected as the first female Chief Minister Punjab in Pakistan's history. -Hamza Azhar Salam   As negotiations for a ceasefire resume in Paris, Pakistan and the international community must push for an end to the violence. Israeli occupation forces have killed nearly 30,000, mostly women and children, according to the Gaza health ministry. The genocide must come to an end! -PTI

“A country must undoubtedly have the necessary military power to deter threats to its security.” -An opinion in The News International, ‘Comprehensive security’